Premier League predictions: Jones Knows foresees Saturday slips for Liverpool and Chelsea | Football News
Premier League predictions: Jones Knows foresees Saturday slips for Liverpool and Chelsea | Football News

Jones Knows thinks the Goodison Park factor is strong enough to take on Liverpool in the Merseyside derby and he also wants to back West Ham at Chelsea.

Everton vs Liverpool, Saturday 12.30pm

Making conclusive betting-based decisions at this early stage of the season is one fraught with danger due to the small sample size of results but jumping on a particular trend that the perhaps the market hasn't spotted yet is a profitable method of attack. It's in the early stages but I'm starting to ponder whether Liverpool are becoming overrated when playing away from home, especially when a key midfielder like Thiago is missing. It's in that midfield area where Liverpool set the tone for their ability to play high and press the ball, therefore negating space for opposition teams to make any quick inroads on their defence. Teams are playing through that press this season.

In attack too, the numbers have fallen short in their two away games at Fulham and Manchester United - games they didn't win. Liverpool averaged an expected goals return of 2.3 goals per-90 on the road last season, it's just 1.25 this season.

Meanwhile, Everton have tightened up and are now a much tougher team to put away with James Tarkowski and Conor Coady organising the defence. Avoiding defeat at Brentford and Leeds certainly are positive signs whilst Everton did win nine of their 18 Premier League home games last season so the Goodison Park factor does play a part. Past results are in their favour too with eight of the last 11 Merseyside derbies on the blue side having ended in a draw.

I'd be steering well clear of the 4/11 with Sky Bet for the away win meaning the 'Everton to win or draw' at 2/1 with Sky Bet is worth a look and forms part of my 40/1 weekend accumulator.

SCORE PREDICTION: 1-1 | JONES KNOWS BEST BET: Everton to win or draw (2/1 with Sky Bet - Bet Here!)

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Brentford vs Leeds, Saturday 3.00pm - PLAY SUPER 6 HERE!

Much like most of the weekend fixtures, this is another game where asking your dog for the result would probably be just as useful as my prediction. Fine margins will be at play involving two teams that will bouncing around in the lower regions of mid-table for most of the season.

Leeds will be hoping the return of Patrick Bamford to the starting XI bodes as well as the numbers suggest it does. Since returning to the Premier League, Leeds have a 43 per cent win percentage when Bamford starts compared to a 25 per cent one when he is missing. The sample size is big enough (over 30 games) to take that statistic seriously and Bamford looked quite sharp when replacing Joe Gelhardt on Tuesday in the 1-1 draw with Everton. That angle is enough to edge me in the direction of Leeds who are 12/5 with Sky Bet. But any result would not surprise me.

SCORE PREDICTION: 1-2

Chelsea vs West Ham, Saturday 3.00pm - PLAY SUPER 6 HERE!

Barring an impressive display against Tottenham, Chelsea have been rather mediocre up against teams the market thinks they should be swatting away with ease. An aggregate score of losing 6-4 against Everton, Leicester, Southampton and Leeds shows signs of a team with issues. And now a genuine top-eight side rock up at Stamford Bridge and are 11/2 with Sky Bet for victory. That price looks very appealing.

West Ham got back to playing the West Ham way under David Moyes for large parts of their 1-1 draw with Tottenham. With a little bit more care in the final third in the closing stages, they could have ended Spurs' unbeaten start to the campaign.

Tomas Soucek was back to his battering-ram best, Michail Antonio chased lost causes and provided the platform for West Ham to build and Declan Rice was his usual calm, collected and classy self in midfield. You'd be hard pushed to find a better spine than that in the Premier League when all are on song. And when you throw Moyes' new additions into the mix - Lucas Paqueta was introduced on 67 minutes and added extra spark - there could be more to come from them this season depending on how well the likes of Paqueta and Gianluca Scamacca settle. They can get a result in this one.

SCORE PREDICTION: 1-2 | JONES KNOWS BEST BET: West Ham to win or draw (6/4 with Sky Bet - Bet Here!)

Newcastle vs Crystal Palace, Saturday 3.00pm

Sometimes this really is the impossible job. This is one of those games you could play 99 times and there would be 33 Newcastle wins, 33 Palace wins and 33 draws. Funnily enough in the last nine meetings Newcastle have won three, Palace have won three and there has been three draws. See my point?

The last six meetings have also been decided by one goal and to my eye there won't be many points between the two clubs in the final standings in May. Pay your money and take your choice. As Palace are the bigger price at 11/4 with Sky Bet, I'll play them without any confidence whatsoever.

SCORE PREDICTION: 0-1

Nottingham Forest vs Bournemouth, Saturday 3.00pm

Assessing the quality and influence of the manager in the dugout isn't something that I put too much emphasis on when trying to make smart betting decisions but it's absolutely relevant for this encounter. Steve Cooper is a skilled operator, set for big things in the Premier League and if you were collating a top trumps-like ratings figure up against Bournemouth's caretaker Gary O'Neil, Cooper would be trumping all over him when it comes to experience and tactical knowhow.

Cooper will have had a big red ring circled around this fixture in the diary and I'm confident his Forest side have the ability and firepower to pick up maximum points. No matter the positive noises about sustainability coming out of Bournemouth there have been clear signs that they are the worst team in this division this season when looking at the underlying numbers. It's Norwich all over again, I'm afraid.

At Evens with Sky Bet, Nottingham Forest look one of the stronger fancies in terms of a match outcome who play this weekend.

SCORE PREDICTION: 2-0 | JONES KNOWS BEST BET: Nottingham Forest to win the match (Evens with Sky Bet - Bet Here!)

Tottenham vs Fulham, Saturday 3.00pm - PLAY SUPER 6 HERE!

Having watched Tottenham up close three times already this season, I feel in a good place in terms of getting a read on them. Antonio Conte's men have an air of vulnerability but carry such an attacking threat. This means they are very hard to oppose in the match markets. A way to try and extract some value in Spurs matches looks to be in the opposition shots market.

West Ham (14), Nottingham Forest (17) and Wolves (20) all performed above market expectations in their total shots tally against Spurs, whose tactic to defend deep and spring on the counter does offer up a huge amount of territory to the opposition. Fulham arrive in great heart and for them to post 11 or more shots at Evens with Sky Bet looks completely fair enough. Those who like to chance their arm at a bigger price should take a swing on the chances of Harrison Reed, vastly underrated in the Fulham midfield, to record two shots at goal at 13/2 with Sky Bet.

Looking at his average position data, Reed has been given more licence to attack this season with the addition of the brilliant Paulinha almost playing as a third centre-back at times. He has posted four shots in his five appearances and Spurs are prone to racking up shots from opposition players that play centrally. Tomas Soucek, Declan Rice and Pablo Fornals all had at least two shots apiece against Spurs, Ryan Yates and Lewis O'Brien had five between them for Forest and Ruben Neves and Matheus Nunes had seven in Spurs' 1-0 win over Wolves.

Harrison Reed is a 13/2 shot to fire two shots vs Spurs
Image: Harrison Reed is a 13/2 shot to fire two shots vs Spurs

This line of thinking makes the 11/4 offered by Sky Bet on Palhinha, Andreas Pereira and Harrison Reed to register four or more shots between them a very interesting play.

SCORE PREDICTION: 2-1 | JONES KNOWS BEST BET: Harrison Reed to have two or more shots (13/2 with Sky Bet - Bet Here!) & Palhinha, Andreas Pereira and Reed to have at least four shots between them (11/4 with Sky Bet - Bet Here!)

Wolves vs Southampton, Saturday 3.00pm

Southampton are a very streaky side under Ralph Hasenhuttl. That makes my job a little easier as they provide me with the simple system of backing them in the next match after an impressive victory. Wolves are also a side I like and will be turning the corner at some point but this isn't a good fixture for them at home in a game they are expected to win. The nerves were clear both on and off the pitch in the 1-1 draw with Newcastle and despite playing well at Bournemouth, that 0-0 means it's now 12 games without a win for Bruno Lage.

The last thing they need right now is playing a fast starting, in your face team. Saints are the masters of the first goal which could set the tone for the afternoon in this one. If you mock up a league table involving just first-half results from last season, Saints would be sixth having gone in at the break ahead in 13 of their 38 Premier League matches and they led Chelsea at the break in their win in midweek. Meanwhile, Wolves have scored the opening goal in just three of the last 12 Premier League games.

Southampton to be winning at half-time and full-time has potential at 9/2 with Sky Bet.

SCORE PREDICTION: 0-2

Aston Villa vs Manchester City, Saturday 5.30pm, live on Sky Sports - PLAY SUPER 6 HERE!

Aston Villa vs Man City

Aston Villa recorded an expected goals figure of under 1.00 for the fourth time in their five matches this season against Arsenal, yet again showing no attacking rhythm, confidence or chemistry. Steven Gerrard is struggling for answers and things could get messy at Villa Park in this one.

One area of weakness that doesn't get picked up by the markets in a struggling side is their lack of defensive organisation defending set pieces which brings plenty of punting opportunities to the table in the opposition player shots and goals markets. Despite their run of kind fixtures, Aston Villa have conceded the second most shots from set pieces this season, including three goals. Gabriel had four shots himself on Wednesday night for Arsenal as the Gunners caused Villa so many problems when the ball was played into their box. For all their pretty passing and delicate football, Man City scored the most goals of anyone in the Premier League last season from set pieces (21) so their players are always worth considering when the price is right.

The player that sticks out to me here is Rodri, who, along with the two centre-backs, is always in the mixer from a City set piece. There are a few ways to attack his prices. As he's also a threat banging shots in from range, the 6/5 with Sky Bet for him to have two shots should give you a run. He's had 18 shots in his last 10 games.

Rodri is a 28/1 shot to score a header this weekend
Image: Rodri is a 28/1 shot to score a header this weekend

Those looking to dream should consider the 28/1 with Sky Bet for him to score a header. Of those 18 shots, five of them have been headers with two goals scored. OK, the sample size is quite small but a player who is City's biggest threat from set pieces with such a decent recent record should be shorter than 28/1 to register his third headed goal in his last 11 starts.

SCORE PREDICTION: 0-3 | JONES KNOWS BEST BET: Rodri to score a header (28/1 with Sky Bet - Bet Here!)

Brighton vs Leicester, Sunday 2.00pm, live on Sky Sports - PLAY SUPER 6 HERE!

Brighton vs Leicester

Brighton have taken 28 points from their last 14 Premier League games since April - only Man City (36), Tottenham (31), Liverpool (31) have amassed more. Meanwhile, Leicester have started the season abysmally, playing with such a lack of intensity as they have lost four on the bounce in timid fashion.

Brighton, well-drilled and super slick, usually feast upon teams that are struggling for confidence with players that aren't perhaps pulling in the same direction. But there is absolutely no way I can back them at 4/5 with Sky Bet to win this match. This isn't my first rodeo with Brighton.

The familiar concern of wasteful finishing is rearing its head again early on this season. Brighton are failing to capitalise on high probability chances created. Over the past three seasons at home, Brighton have created an expected goals figure of 90.34 but have scored just 62 goals showing a frightening underperformance in front of goal against the quality of chances created.

I haven't checked the numbers, but Solly March must be responsible for at least 80 of those expected goals, no? He's now up to an expected goals tally of 1.38 this season with three big chances missed - no Premier League player has a higher xG this season without managing to score. How my weekly 10/1 anytime scorer price hasn't copped is pretty staggering. He remains that price this weekend by the way.

Counter Brighton's wastefulness with the fact Leicester have scored in 25 of their last 28 Premier League away games. It suggests just one goal from the Foxes could be enough to avoid defeat.

All of the above will probably render pointless when March bangs home a hat-trick at 500/1 though.

SCORE PREDICTION: 1-1

Manchester United vs Arsenal, Sunday 4.30pm, live on Sky Sports - PLAY SUPER 6 HERE!

Man Utd vs Arsenal

Who knew the Erik Ten Hag way was drenched in so much filth?

I think many of us were expecting full-throttle football with a high defensive line but what Ten Hag has resorted to, for now, is a no-thrills, quite direct style with the backdrop of aggression and in-your-face defending. It's probably smart management as something had to change stylistically.

Manchester United are rough and tumble now and hard to score against. Arsenal will have to be smart and clinical to break though - but one goal may just do it. It would be a massive statement to leave with three points.

The match prices look about right to me though with United and Arsenal both trading around the same mark at 8/5 with Sky Bet. It's a tough game to call. Too tough for me to get involved so I'm heading into the cards market for a wager where United's newfound aggressive approach makes them a strong fancy in them to receive more cards than Arsenal at 11/10 with Sky Bet.

Since the 4-0 drubbing at Brentford, no team have been shown more yellow cards (9) or made more fouls (40) than Manchester United with Ten Hag's side winning the card count race in all of their last three fixtures. Despite Arsenal being regarded as a side with disciplinary problems, the numbers show that they only rank 12th for yellow cards shown since the start of last season when factoring in ever-present Premier League teams. United look a fantastic price with the cards in mind.

SCORE PREDICTION: 0-0 | JONES KNOWS BEST BET: Manchester United most booking points (11/10 with Sky Bet - Bet Here!)



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