Jones Knows thinks Liverpool can secure another big win against Newcastle at Anfield on Wednesday.
Bournemouth vs Wolves, Wednesday 7.30pm
I'm pretty convinced there are the makings of a really good side lurking at Wolves, but a lack of confidence in attack and the lingering cloud of a winless run is certainly affecting their performance at key moments in matches. They looked to be seeing the game out perfectly well against Newcastle but the closer they got to the finishing line, the more the nerves kicked in. It's now 11 games across the summer since Bruno Lage last tasted victory as a manager, and in that run his side have scored just six goals. They are favourites to win this one at 11/10 with Sky Bet which does probably underestimate Wolves slightly, but Bournemouth changing their manager makes it a hard price to be truly confident about. There is bound to be a reaction from the Cherries in front of their home crowd. The draw is probably the safe play.
Value does jump out in the shots market, though, with the match to produce 24 or more match shots at 4/5 with Sky Bet looking a cracking bet for those that like a short price. Since the start of last season, the average total match shots in a Premier League is just below 26 (25.85 to be precise) and this game feels to me like it has potential to go over that average. Due to Wolves' nervousness and wastefulness in front of goal they are likely to rack up their side of the bargain in firing plenty of efforts at goal against a side that have conceded 16.5 shots per-90 minutes. That does come with a caveat of having played Manchester City, Liverpool and Arsenal but I'd still expect Wolves to post around that figure in a match they really could do with winning.
Meanwhile, Wolves do defend deep and have shipped an average of 15.3 shots per-90 minutes in their last 13 Premier League games. With that Bournemouth reaction expected, I'd be fully anticipating the Cherries to get somewhere near that total which should see that 4/5 shot sail in. The 30+ match shots at 7/2 with Sky Bet is perhaps an option for those that like to ride a little more dangerously.
SCORE PREDICTION: 1-1
Arsenal vs Aston Villa, Wednesday 7.30pm - PLAY SUPER 6 HERE!
Aston Villa have completely duffed their relatively kind set of opening four fixtures and now they head into back-to-games with Arsenal and Manchester City low on confidence and points.
To generate just 4.36 expected goals from fixtures with Bournemouth, Everton, Crystal Palace and West Ham, producing less than a 1.00 return in three of those, is a very worrying trend for Steven Gerrard, who is struggling to find the right balance and chemistry with his midfield and forward line. He has now lost 15 of his 31 Premier Leagues games in charge of Villa.
And now they are heading to a team that could be on course for one of the best defensive records in the Premier League this season if the early numbers are to be believed. Arsenal have conceded just three goals, and only Manchester City have recorded a better figure than the Gunners' 2.79 defensive expected goals. The 'Arsenal win to nil' train will be a popular method of attack this season. It should land here at 11/8 with Sky Bet.
SCORE PREDICTION: 2-0
Manchester City vs Nottingham Forest, Wednesday 7.30pm - PLAY SUPER 6 HERE!
Nottingham Forest are a much better side than odds of 28/1 with Sky Bet for an away win suggest. Yet, saying that, I'm not sure how Steve Cook is going to handle Erling Haaland. Like bringing a pipette to a water fight springs to mind.
Once again though I'll be chancing my arm at taking on Haaland in the first goalscorer market where he takes up a huge slice of the pie at a very skinny 7/4 with Sky Bet. He is phenomenal, we all know it, but when opponents are defending deep and a side play with three centre- backs he's going to find space very hard to come by early on in matches, while his team-mates will be freed up. Bernardo Silva scored City's first goal in the win over Crystal Palace, and Ilkay Gundogan opened the scoring against Bournemouth and Newcastle.
Pep Guardiola rested Gundogan against Palace but called for him from the bench, and in his 30 minutes on the pitch he recorded a 100 per cent pass completion and grabbed an assist. His return of 29 goals in 94 apps in all competitions since the start of the 20/21 season shows he's a reliable customer in front of goal and the 9/1 first goalscorer price with Sky Bet remains very much on my radar.
SCORE PREDICTION: 3-0
West Ham vs Tottenham, Wednesday 7.45pm - PLAY SUPER 6 HERE!
Tottenham are a counter-attacking side. West Ham are a counter-attacking side. This could result in a very anticlimactic London derby that swims against the tide of what is expected. It will need an early goal to spark it up. Will that come? On what we've seen from both teams this season, I'd suggest not.
Yes, it's a small sample size but West Ham and Tottenham rank very low in terms of first half attacking metrics this season. West Ham have yet to score before the break and have recorded the second lowest expected goals return and shots - only Bournemouth have produced a lower return on both counts. Spurs, too, have been very slow starters despite their strong points haul, something Harry Kane mentioned in his post-match interview after the win at Nottingham Forest.
Despite scoring three first half goals, they have created an expected goals figure of just 1.61 and had just 17 shots - only West Ham, Bournemouth and Crystal Palace (who have had a very tough start vs Arsenal, Liverpool and Manchester City) have had fewer. The 0-0 at half time at 9/4 with Sky Bet looks particularly bulky when you factor in those numbers.
SCORE PREDICTION: 0-0
Liverpool vs Newcastle, Wednesday 8pm - PLAY SUPER 6 HERE!
I've learnt to respect Newcastle's chances when playing at home but am very keen look for ways to exploit their overrated status in many markets when playing on the road. Since Eddie Howe took the job only Everton and Wolves have produced a worse attacking process on the road than Newcastle among all the ever-present Premier League teams. That was on show in their two draws with Brighton and Wolves this season.
Allan Saint-Maximin and key midfielder Bruno Guimaraes are also doubts for this trip to Anfield, where Liverpool are unbeaten in their last 25 Premier League home games.
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It's difficult to see what Howe can come up with to seriously ask questions of this Liverpool defence without the pace and running ability of Saint-Maximin. Jurgen Klopp's men have conceded just five goals in their last 16 Premier League home matches.
All this is pointing to a comfortable Liverpool home win, and when Liverpool win at home they usually do so by two or more goals. It's happened 14 times in their last 16 home wins. The Toon lost by two or more under Howe at Tottenham, Manchester City, Arsenal and Liverpool last season so I was a little surprised to see as big as 8/11 with Sky Bet for Liverpool -1 on the handicap meaning we'll get paid if they win by two or more. Those looking to play a little bit more aggressively should entertain the prospect of a 4-0 (11/1 with Sky Bet) or 5-0 (20/1 with Sky Bet) for Klopp's men.
SCORE PREDICTION: 4-0
Manchester United vs Leicester prediction to follow...